WILLIAMS COMPANIES, INC. (WMB) Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

Williams delivered a solid Q2: Adjusted EBITDA rose 8% year over year to $1.808B, Adjusted EPS was $0.46, and CFFO reached $1.45B; management raised FY25 Adjusted EBITDA midpoint by $50M to $7.75B within a $7.6–$7.9B range .
Growth was driven by Transco expansions (Texas-to-Louisiana Energy Pathway, Southeast Energy Connector), higher Gulf of Mexico volumes, and stronger gathering/processing in the Northeast and West; Transmission & Gulf set an all-time quarterly record .
Strategic catalysts: executed commercial agreements for Northeast Supply Enhancement (NESE), accelerated the Southeast Supply Enhancement (CECI) timeline, broke ground on the $1.6B Socrates “Power Innovation” project to serve AI demand, and closed Saber Midstream to bolster Haynesville scale .
Versus S&P Global consensus, Q2 revenue was a modest beat while EPS was a small miss; note S&P standardized EBITDA differs from company Adjusted EBITDA, which matched the trajectory of guidance raises (see Estimates Context) . Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well
- Record performance and execution: “Adjusted EBITDA up 8%... driven primarily by Transco expansions and new volumes in the Gulf,” with six projects placed into service in Q2 and “all-time records for summer natural gas volumes” on Transco and Gulfstream .
- Clear growth runway and guidance raise: FY25 Adjusted EBITDA midpoint increased to $7.75B; CEO emphasized Williams is “investing in infrastructure that will power America’s future” amid rising structural gas demand .
- Strategic positioning for AI/data centers: Socrates project groundbreaking; management targets additional behind‑the‑meter projects up to ~1 GW by 2027, with attractive returns and faster cycle times .
What Went Wrong
- EPS vs consensus light: S&P “Primary EPS” actual trailed consensus in Q2; gas marketing was soft and Eagle Ford saw an MVC step‑down, partially offsetting strength elsewhere . Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
- Transco rate case: Final settlement pending; a modernization tracker is unlikely in this settlement, pushing tracker aspirations to a future case .
- Tariffs are a manageable but real headwind: Management estimates steel-related tariffs could add ~1–3% to total project costs, generally covered in contingencies .

Financial Results

Metric	Q4 2024	Q1 2025	Q2 2025
Total Revenues ($USD Millions)	$2,781	$3,048	$2,781
GAAP Diluted EPS	$0.40	$0.56	$0.45
Adjusted EPS	$0.47	$0.60	$0.46
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)	$1,776	$1,989	$1,808
Cash Flow from Operations ($USD Millions)	$1,218	$1,433	$1,450

Q2 2025 consensus comparison (S&P Global):

Metric	S&P Consensus	S&P Actual	Delta
Primary EPS	$0.489*	$0.460*	-$0.029*
Revenue ($USD Billions)	$2.731*	$2.745*	+$0.014*
EBITDA ($USD Billions)	$1.819*	$1.550*	-$0.269*

Note: S&P standardized EBITDA differs from company “Adjusted EBITDA,” which excludes items deemed unrepresentative (see Non‑GAAP reconciliations). Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Segment Adjusted EBITDA (Q2 2025 vs Q2 2024):

Segment ($USD Millions)	Q2 2024	Q2 2025
Transmission & Gulf of America	812	903
Northeast G&P	479	501
West	319	341
Gas & NGL Marketing Services	-14	-15
Other	71	78
Total Adjusted EBITDA	1,667	1,808

KPIs (volumes snapshot)

KPI	Q2 2024	Q1 2025	Q2 2025
Transco Avg Daily Transportation (MMdth)	12.9	15.9	14.0
West Gathering Volumes (Bcf/d)	5.25	5.69	5.94
Northeast G&P Consolidated Gathering (Bcf/d)	4.11	4.39	4.15
Transmission & Gulf NGL Production (Mbbl/d)	43	61	76

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Adjusted EBITDA	FY 2025	$7.5–$7.9B; midpoint $7.7B	$7.6–$7.9B; midpoint $7.75B	Raised midpoint +$0.05B
Growth Capex	FY 2025	$2.575–$2.875B	$2.575–$2.875B	Maintained
Maintenance Capex	FY 2025	$650–$750M (excl. $150M emissions/modernization)	$650–$750M (excl. $150M emissions/modernization)	Maintained
Leverage Ratio Midpoint	FY 2025	3.65x	3.65x	Maintained
Dividend (Annualized)	FY 2025	$2.00 (5.3% increase vs 2024)	$2.00; quarterly $0.50 (approved Jul 29, payable Sep 29)	Maintained
AFFO	FY 2025	~$5.375–$5.675B (Q1 framework)	~$5.560–$5.790B (updated framework)	Raised range

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q4’24 and Q1’25)	Current Period (Q2’25)	Trend
AI/data center power (“Power Innovation”)	Announced Socrates ($1.6B) to serve AI; Power Express (950 MMcf/d) for VA by 3Q30 .	Broke ground on Socrates; next projects targeted with up to ~1 GW by 2027; rapid FIDs expected .	Increasing momentum
LNG and Gulf Coast positioning	Gulf Coast Storage integration and first 10 Bcf expansion; deepwater growth .	LEG in service; Haynesville expansion announced; Pine Prairie storage expansion advancing; demand exceeds initial capacity .	Strengthening
Permitting/regulatory	Active project slate; raised FY25 guidance; rate case context .	NESE commercial agreements signed; CECI accelerated; FERC reinstatement and NY water permit steps outlined; modernization tracker unlikely this case .	Improving execution; mixed on tracker
Tariffs/supply chain	Not highlighted as a major risk in prior quarter materials.	Steel tariffs estimated 1–3% of total project costs; managed within contingencies .	Manageable headwind
Macro gas demand	Record contracted transmission capacity; sustained demand .	“Golden age of natural gas”; record summer demand on Transco despite cooler weather .	Positive

Management Commentary

“Williams delivered another outstanding quarter with Adjusted EBITDA up 8%... driven primarily by Transco expansions and new volumes in the Gulf as well as higher volumes in our Northeast and West” — Chad Zamarin, CEO .
“At Williams, we’re investing in infrastructure that will power America’s future... natural gas as the backbone of reliable, affordable, and clean energy” — CEO .
CFO: Transmission & Gulf “improved $91 million or 11%, setting an all-time record due to higher revenues from expansion projects,” with contributions from Discovery and Shell’s Whale; Northeast and West grew on volumes and acquisitions; marketing was softer .
“This is the golden age of natural gas and Williams is built for this moment” — CEO .

Q&A Highlights

Long-term growth vs 5–7% CAGR: Management sees stronger tailwinds (power demand, project backlog) and will outline longer-range outlook at Analyst Day; emphasis on disciplined, high-return projects .
Next “Power Innovation” projects: Equipment ordered; expect commercialization in coming months; up to ~1 GW by 2027; potential to upsize Socrates .
Tariffs impact: Steel represents ~5–15% of project cost; tariffs could add ~1–3% total cost, generally covered by contingencies; larger cost lever is permitting reform .
LNG/storage leverage: LEG now flowing; Haynesville expansion to add 0.4 Bcf/d by 2027; strong storage demand (Pine Prairie) suggests further expansions .
Transco rate case: Close to settlement; modernization tracker likely not included; revisit in future rate case .
NESE approvals and schedule: FERC actions expected; NY water permit targeted after PSC affirmation; aim to break ground this year and be in service ahead of 2027 winter .

Estimates Context

Q2 2025 vs S&P Global: EPS ($0.46*) modestly missed $0.489* consensus; revenue ($2.745B*) slightly beat $2.731B*; S&P standardized EBITDA ($1.55B*) was below $1.819B* consensus, though company Adjusted EBITDA was $1.808B and aligned with management’s guidance trajectory . Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Potential estimate drags: lower gas marketing margins and the Eagle Ford MVC step-down (West) offsetting broader strength; higher O&M and D&A given expansions and acquisitions; a conservative reserve pending final Transco settlement .
Forward look (S&P): Q3 2025 EPS consensus ~$0.517*, Q4 2025 ~$0.569*; EBITDA consensus ~$1.92–$2.02B* for Q3–Q4, implying confidence in 2H ramps from projects and volumes. Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Key Takeaways for Investors

Underlying engine strong: fee-based Transmission & Gulf led broad-based growth; Q2 Adj EBITDA +8% YoY with record segment contribution and improved volumes in core basins .
Guidance raised again: FY25 Adjusted EBITDA midpoint to $7.75B; leverage midpoint held at 3.65x even with elevated organic capex, demonstrating balance sheet capacity for the backlog .
Structural demand catalysts: AI-driven power load, LNG exports, and reliability needs are pulling projects across Transco and storage; Socrates underway with more behind‑the‑meter opportunities .
Regulatory path clearing: NESE commercial step, CECI acceleration, and increasingly constructive permitting environment are positive signals; modernization tracker remains a medium‑term objective .
Watch near-term mix: West’s Eagle Ford MVC headwind and softer marketing offset gains; as Haynesville/LEG ramps and storage expands, mix should skew more favorably .
Dividend durability: $2.00 annualized (5.3% lift) with 2.16x Q2 coverage on AFFO; track continued coverage and cash tax deferrals aiding AFFO in 2025–2026 .
Trading setup: Narrative is improving on guidance raises and project milestones; near-term beats/misses may hinge on marketing margins and timing of rate case settlement; medium-term thesis supported by visible, fully‑contracted backlog .

Footnotes:

S&P Global data noted with an asterisk (*) and “Values retrieved from S&P Global.” Definitions (e.g., standardized EBITDA vs company Adjusted EBITDA) may differ from company non‑GAAP metrics (see company reconciliations) .